New York State has been reopening gradually, with a minimum of 2 weeks between each phase. Ithaca entered Phase 4 on Friday, along with most of Upstate NY. Dine-in was allowed in Phase 3, but many restaurants are still takeout-only, or completely closed. All gyms are still closed, as are most bars. Large public events are still forbidden, and masks are required for all indoor public spaces. Outdoors, mask use seems to range from 0% to 70%, depending on location and time. I think it’s declining.
The Rt tracker site currently shows 33 states with increasing infection rates, and only 17 decreasing. New York had a low number through most of April and May, but it gradually inched up. Today it is exactly 1.0. If it stays there, the number of daily infections will remain the same indefinitely.
Since the current number reflects conditions from a couple weeks ago, it is very possible that NYS has reopened too quickly. The ideal balance between safety and economy probably was back at Stage 2 or 3. We will find out about that in a few weeks.
At least Covid-19 is close to contained around here. The county health department is doing almost 1500 tests a week, with only two of them positive on average. Nobody has been hospitalized here since May 29. Nobody local has died yet. Conditions are worse in the bigger cities within a few hours drive, but still tolerable. Even New York City is inching back from the brink.
Sadly, some other states are starting to become very dire. Most of the US reopened too quickly. Governors are starting to crack down, but they will soon find out what happens with exponential growth and a time lag. For example, right now the estimated Rt for Florida is 1.4. That means cases will almost triple before any impact shows, from remedies started today. Florida already has 9500 new daily cases, so it probably will get worse than New York City was in April, and soon.
It’s like watching a slow, enormous train wreck. Too bad it’s not just a train, but the whole frigging country.
Meanwhile, the big question locally is what happens after Cornell reopens this Fall. They just issued a 97 page report about it, but it leaves many details dangling. I think a lot of their plans ignore what students in their late teens and early 20s are like. The local economy is very dependent on the two colleges, so it’s going to be a very interesting ride.
I am pushing 70, so it makes sense to continue social distancing and mask-wearing, even though risks have declined. Most likely that will continue for at least another year. Masks suck, especially in hot weather, but they are a lot more comfortable than a respirator.
To cut down on exposure, the Turtlesoft office is currently open just one day a week. We probably will keep that schedule for most of the summer. Maybe longer. User support is still available by email, and usually by phone.
I spent the stimulus money on scaffolding. So I’m stripping 3 layers of ancient asphalt roofing off my house, and installing metal. It’s also a chance to finish up the exterior painting a bit more safely, and hang new gutters. After that, we’ll see. If QT seems plausible, at some point Goldenseal Pro will consume much more time again.
Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com
