Health Departments & Politics (Oct 21)

I’ve been more than a bit obsessed with Covid-19 since it started. For a while it was almost a full-time gig. These days it’s calmed down to just a few hours a week: reading science papers, and spot-checking a few websites.

Among them are sites for Health Departments in some nearby counties. They vary. All have current numbers, but some break it down by towns; some give a brief description of each case; some have lists of places where infected people visited. Right after the Sturgis rally, Cattaraugus County (4 to the west) even mentioned that two cases were in people just returned from South Dakota. That’s a long motorcycle ride.

The sites are entertaining, in a geeky sort of way. I keep adding more links, and now visit 15 of them. Reading between the lines, they paint a picture of what the pandemic must be like for staff in local Health Departments.

Pre-Covid, their biggest job was inspecting restaurants and other food services. Keep perishables below 45° or above 145°F, don’t put meat above salads in the fridge, control rodents and the like. They also administered WIC, and tried to keep people from catching STDs or growing too obese. Flu shots. Toxic algae blooms. Ticks and Lyme disease. Mosquitoes and West Nile. Opioids. Tobacco. Rabies.

Most of these departments are pretty small. They already had a lot on their plate. This year they’ve been in crisis mode for five months already, and the battle has just started.

Contact tracing and quarantines are an important part of controlling a communicable disease like Covid-19, and that’s mostly what they do now. I’m sure it is not an easy job. You’ve got to ask people where they’ve been and who they were close to. Then persuade them to stay home for a couple weeks. Plenty of people resent authority or think it’s all a hoax. Even the best will be tempted to sneak out for a bit. You’ve got to deal with all that, and probably don’t have much enforcement power.

Normally I avoid talking about politics. As a business owner, I’m significantly less liberal than most folks here in Ithaca. As an Ithacan, I’m more liberal than most people using our software.

Thing is, right now the US probably is headed into a major emergency. A once in a century situation. It’s right in the middle of an election for President, all of the House and 1/3 of Senators. Plus local races.

Both political parties got together in March, and signed the CARES act to support people and organizations affected by the pandemic. Since then, it’s been gridlock and antagonism.

All those local Health Departments will make the difference between a moderately bad Fall/Winter season for Covid-19, and a runaway disaster. To keep everyone safe, they need more staff to trace contacts. More tests. More ability to support folks in quarantine so they don’t wander off and infect others. The states and counties that pay them are facing bigger expenses, and reduced revenues. They can’t print money to make up the difference, and need help.

And of course, many individual people are in the same boat. Life got a lot more complicated and generally worse in March. It’s not turning any corners, anytime soon. It will take extremely competent leadership to manage the next phase of the pandemic, and recover from the economic damage. States and counties can only do so much. Covid-19 is exactly the kind of problem that needs full attention at the Federal level. It’s not happening now.

You might say this country needs to come together, and fight a common enemy: the coronavirus that causes Covid-19. And maybe come together for other stuff also. Life was already headed downhill for many people, even before March 2020.

I miss the days when there were liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats. When politicians compromised and solved problems (at least some of the time). In the end, competence and integrity are what counts.

Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com

Covid-19: Contact Tracing (Oct 12)

Our county had its first death from Covid-19 today. The number of active cases has gradually increased as well. Surprisingly, Cornell is not to blame. They’ve only reported 5 new cases in students and staff during the past week. The rest of the county had 30.

This is not just a local problem. Some parts of Upstate NY have even bigger increases. There currently are 226 active cases in Steuben County (2 to the west of here). 870 people are in quarantine (almost 1% of their population). It’s much worse now than in March/April. So far 60 people have died in Steuben, with 15 in the past week. Their population is similar to here.

New York State is actually doing better than most places in the US. Looking ahead, it makes me very concerned.

It’s possible to divide epidemics and pandemics into three levels of severity.

The best option is full containment. It’s what happened with SARS, MERS and Ebola (twice) in this century. There’s a local outbreak, but medical help rushes in to help the infected. Contact tracers find and quarantine everyone exposed to them. There’s public education, to help folks reduce their risk of infection. Eventually the disease stops spreading. Eventually it disappears.

With Covid-19, some countries have reached containment. China is the biggest example, but most of Eastern Asia is fully contained or close. However, until the disease is completely contained in the rest of the world, they all risk new outbreaks.

The next best option is just plain old containment. It still involves contact tracing and quarantines, to reduce the spread. Still public education to help slow things down. But for whatever reason, the growth rate stays about the same. People keep getting sick, but not at crisis levels. That’s where most of Europe is right now. Ditto for much of the US, especially New England. New York was there all summer, but it’s starting to lose it. Europe is starting to lose it too.

The worst option is out of control pandemic. Contact tracing doesn’t work then, because too many people are infected at once. You can’t keep track of everyone, nor quarantine them all. The disease pretty much runs its course exponentially. Eventually there is herd immunity, but it ain’t pretty getting there.

Influenza did that in 1918 to 1920. Plenty of other diseases did that in prior history. This year it happened for a few weeks in one Chinese province, then in Italy, Spain and New York City. Hospitals are overwhelmed. Almost everything becomes unsafe. Things can get very bad, even when a disease isn’t real deadly. It’s worse when every place is in trouble at the same time.

Steuben may be close to the edge now. They have 15 contact tracers, which means each of them is running daily checks on 18 sick people, plus 40 more who were exposed and in isolation. Things were fine there until Sept 23, then it went off a cliff.

Covid-19 has dominated lives for more than seven months. I think all of us are growing very, very fatigued. The problem is that Spring and Summer 2020 were just Covid 1.0. Best guess is that this pandemic will follow the 1918/9 curve. If so, we’re right at the leading edge of the second and bigger wave.

One big thing we have in 2020 that wasn’t common in 1918 is vaccines, plus the science to develop them rapidly. Vaccines are challenging. The immune system in general is not easy to understand. Luckily, Derek Lowe’s latest write-up on vaccine development sums up current progress. He is a writer for Science magazine, and all his posts about Covid-19 are great. UPDATE: the Chairman of Pfizer also just posted info about their vaccine development.

The short answer is that creating a safe & effective vaccine is a slow process. One probably won’t be ready in time to help with that middle bump (if it happens). But it may reduce the 3rd and 4th ones.

Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com

Goldenseal Pro Progress (Oct 5)

Our staff has made some progress on Goldenseal Pro: text fields now fill in values, and popup fields get menus. QT is still working well, and I’m very optimistic that we’ll be successful with it.

However, our staff has mostly been busy with other things, the past couple weeks. The rest of October will be similar, before we get back on track.

First of all, TurtleSoft is moving to a less Covid-risky office. At the moment everything is boxes and disassembled shelving. The chaos will get worse before it gets better.

I also finished re-roofing my house last week. It was a big project that started in late May: removing 3 layers of ancient asphalt shingle from a 12:12 pitch, then installing new metal panels. I also added a couple of skylights in the attic. There’s still a small shed roof to finish on the rear, but that should only take a few days. It’s the first roofing project I’ve done with scaffolding rather than ladders, and the process was so much safer and more pleasant. Well worth the extra setup and take-down time.

Getting back into major construction work was satisfying. 20 to 25 hours a week of physical work seems like the sweet spot: enough to get very fit, but not enough for serious back and joint pains. So, I’m planning to finish some interior work over the next few months, then sell the place and buy another fixer-upper. Then repeat the process every five years or so.

For most of its lifetime, TurtleSoft has been a part-time operation. This really isn’t a change from how it’s always been here. Sometimes there are spurts, and sometimes gaps. Goldenseal Pro will be spurting again soon enough.

Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com

Covid-19: Droplets (Sep 25)

A couple weeks ago, Cornell University had over 80 active infections, and it was looking pretty dire. Then, the students got scared, and more careful. Last week there were 29 new cases. This week only 5. Someone was hospitalized for a few days last week, but it’s down to zero again. Still no local deaths.

Cornell has already run about 90,000 PCR tests since classes started. Students are tested twice weekly, and staff once. It’s probably not cheap. But, there’s a lot to be said for testing everyone: it nips outbreaks in the bud, and also acts as a reminder that the situation is serious. Having same-day turnaround also helps.

Meanwhile, I’m still doing research for a Coronavirus risk estimator. The consensus now seems to be that most infections happen through the air, so I’ve read a few dozen research publications about droplets and aerosols. The best is a 1934 paper by W. F. Wells. Here are a couple of its charts:

The first shows what happens to droplets that leave a person from talking, coughing or sneezing. Anything smaller than about 140 microns (.14 mm) evaporates, and turns into a floating aerosol. Anything bigger falls to the ground within a few seconds. What that means for Covid-19 is that there are three basic risks:

  1. if you are close enough to someone, you may inhale one of those bigger droplets while it’s still falling. That’s what the 6-foot rule is all about, and the advice to cough into your elbow.
  2. After the big droplets land, you can touch that surface, then transfer virus into your eyes, nose or mouth. It’s the reason for washing hands, and not touching your face.
  3. If you breathe air, you may inhale those small dried-up droplets, which gradually mix into the entire room volume. This is where HVAC comes in. The risk for any space depends on the number of infected people inside and what they are doing, minus air changes and filtration. It’s also why masks are so effective: they block droplets both coming and going.

The second chart from the Wells paper explains why respiratory diseases are more common in winter. People are indoors more, which is half the problem. Even worse, the air is heated and dry, so more droplets evaporate, float around, and end up in noses and lungs.

When working with droplets and aerosols, it’s easiest to do everything in microns (symbol µm, aka micrometers). A micron is one thousandth of a millimeter. It’s about the size of the biggest tobacco smoke particles, a medium-sized bacteria, or the smallest pollen grains. PM2.5 pollution is 2.5 microns and smaller (the most dangerous size because it gets into your lungs easily). N95 masks filter 95% at 1/3 micron size. They hit 99% for both smaller and larger particles. 3M says that’s because the bigger particles are heavy, and ram into a fiber. Smaller ones are extremely light, so the fibers suck them in by electrostatic attraction. 1/3 micron is the sour spot in between. A coronavirus is about 1/10 of a micron.

A few researchers have measured the amount of Coronavirus in mucus and saliva: results range from 12 million to 36 billion virions per cc. It’s simple math to translate that to the amount of virus in droplets of different sizes. As it turns out, a one-micron exhaled particle only has a 2% chance of containing a virus, even at the maximum rate. The bigger droplets that dry up and then float are worse. The maximum size that evaporates in humid air (97 microns) will contain somewhere between 3 and 17,000 virions. The maximum in dry air (172 microns) has 16 to 96,000.

As those droplets lose water, they shrink down to roughly 10 microns diameter (about average pollen size). They become a tiny glob of mucus proteins and passengers, light enough to float for hours, easy to inhale. By the math, those are probably the most dangerous.

Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com

Goldenseal Pro Progress (Sept 14)

Our staff is gradually getting Goldenseal Pro to run, using the QT framework. Right now the app launches, opens files, and fills in a list of accounts and transaction types on the left side of the main window. Next step is to get it to load layouts into tabs on the right. That’s the most important part of the interface for Goldenseal Pro.

Back when we attempted to use Apple’s Cocoa framework, it took two or three months to get this far. So far, progress seems faster with QT, despite spending fewer hours per week. Some of speed increase is because we can reuse previous programming, or at least the logic behind it. Some is because we don’t have to futz with two different programming languages.

We currently are working mostly on Macs, but the same code also runs on Windows. Most likely we will alternate between them.

People warned us that QT is bloated, and they weren’t kidding. I found a list of all the QT classes: there are 1,718 of them. In comparison, Apple’s Cocoa has 654 classes, and Microsoft’s MFC has 475. I put all the QT stuff into a spreadsheet and narrowed it down to things that we might actually use. That gets it to a couple hundred.

In the past few years we used both Cocoa and MFC to build Goldenseal Pro, and failed completely. Not the first time we’ve had to toss months or years of work. Since 1987, our staff has tried about 20 different frameworks for building desktop apps. Only three resulted in actual apps: Microsoft Excel (MacNail), Apple HyperCard (BidMagic), and Metrowerks PowerPlant (the current Goldenseal). All three of them were productive right from the start. So far, QT feels the same way. Despite the bloat, it works. It’s not painful to use. Success is not guaranteed, but I’m more optimistic that we will finish this time.

The real test will be breakdown tables. If necessary we can use the work-arounds already developed for Cocoa, but it would be better if we can have something closer to the current interface. It probably will be 2 or 3 months until we get that far.

Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com

Covid-19 in New York #4 (Sept 5)

There are two colleges here in Ithaca. Both planned to have classes on campus. Ithaca College (the smaller one) changed their mind a few weeks ago. They will be online-only for the Fall semester. Cornell went ahead with their reopening plans, and classes started on Wednesday. The Vet School laboratories are testing all undergraduates twice a week, which sounds great in theory.

Three weeks ago, there were 7 active cases of Covid-19 in the county. A week ago there were 19. Yesterday, there were 70. Most cases happened because students had parties without masks or social distancing. Who could possibly have suspected that might happen? /s

Maybe everyone will get scared, and change their behavior. More likely, there will be enough cases to trigger an automatic shut-down, per NYS regulations. We’ll see.

Meanwhile in the rest of the US, the State Rt tracker shows wavy curves for every single state. Today the majority of states are positive. Sometimes the majority are negative. It seems to vary on a few-week cycle. Back in April I compared state responses to skidding on icy roads. Because of the feedback delay, it’s easy to lose control and end up in a ditch.

Luckily, that isn’t happening with Covid-19. Most states seem to be converging on a Rt value close to 1. That’s probably the ideal growth rate, as long as the case count is low: the best balance between health and economic activity. I guess it also applies to ice and snow: most drivers in the North eventually figure out how to slow down the feedback cycle and stay on the road.

Globally, infections are also at a steady state, with about a million new infections every 4 days. Much of Europe is starting to see early stages of exponential growth, again. It’s going to be a long haul.

I’m still working on an Excel spreadsheet that calculates Covid-19 risk. There are many studies with useful info, but nothing that translates directly into hourly risk. It will require some assumptions and guesswork to get it calculating accurately.

Covid-19 risk is mostly a matter of HVAC. The amount of virus you inhale is equal to the number of people nearby, times the % that are infected, then divided by the volume of air and the number of air changes per hour.

At least a dozen case studies have been published: cruise ships, a Seattle choir practice, a Maine wedding, church events. I have been using Google maps and other sources to estimate building sizes. Air changes is totally a guess.

The biggest uncertainty was expressed best by Dr. Gregory House: “everybody lies”. Folks don’t want to miss work, or they really need a pack of cigs, so they get into public space even though they are shedding virus into the air. Odds are good that they don’t wear a mask. They avoid testing and don’t get into the official data, so the math is more difficult. Everyone’s lives are more difficult.

Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com

Goldenseal Pro: QT Creator (Aug 24)

In the movies, programmers type hundreds of code lines at a furious pace. Then they hit a button, and it saves the world/hacks into the FBI/some other dramatic theme.

There may be non-movie programmers who can program like that, but I’m not one of them. I’ve never met anyone who can do it in real life, either. We mortals spend 10% of our time writing a few lines of code (slowly). Then 90% figuring out why it doesn’t work. To help with that, we use an IDE (Integrated Development Environment). It’s a text editor that also runs the software, with tools for debugging.

A productive day of programming might have 100 cycles of write/run/debug. Multiply that by 100s or 1000s of programmer-days, and it’s almost like being married to the IDE. It’s as big a choice as which programming language to use.

For Macintosh, almost everyone uses Xcode: free software from Apple. For Windows, the main IDE is Visual Studio: free software from Microsoft. Both are OK but not great. I think a competitive environment would produce better quality IDEs, but nobody can compete against big-company and free.

QT comes with its own IDE: QT Creator. This past couple weeks, our staff has been migrating Goldenseal Pro into it. I have been cautiously skeptical about QT Creator, mostly because QT itself is a confused mishmash. There is a free, open source project, and also a company making a living from a commercial version. It’s an odd combination that could end up better then having huge corporate overlords, or it could be worse. Still too early to tell which it is.

Running code in an IDE is a three step process. First there’s a compiler, which checks everything for errors, and gives warnings for code that is suspicious but not deadly. If no fatal errors turn up in the compile step, the IDE then links everything into an app, and runs it. For step three you use the app, and see if it works right. If not, the debugger will step through the code bit by bit, so you can see if it’s working as expected. A fix might take minutes, or days.

Today we just finished getting Goldenseal Pro to compile. It meant eliminating about a thousand errors, mostly caused by old, obsolete code. Some could simply be tossed. Some could be rewritten immediately, with minor changes. The rest is just bypassed for now, until we see whether it’s needed or not.

The next step is pretty quick: fixing link errors probably won’t take more than a day or two. Then we start the long process of getting it all to run properly. For MFC my first guess was a year for that. It’s also a reasonable guess for the QT version.

Overall, QT Creator has its quirks, but it seems to function OK. I think our staff will get used to it.

Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com

Roofing, Risk & Covid (Aug 18)

I dropped out of Cornell in 1971, bought some land, and started doing odd jobs. One of the first was at minimum wage, for an old geezer who hired me to put roll roofing on his gambrel barn. He sat in a wheelchair at ground level and talked me through the whole project, step by step. It was all done on old wooden ladders, with a few patched rungs. I was terrified the entire time. Thinking back, there was good reason to feel that way.

Right now I’m re-roofing my own house. I bought some good fall protection for the job, but then decided even that wasn’t enough. So, now there is a comfy scaffolding platform at the eaves, with safety rails. It’s almost like working at ground level.

These days, the risk that scares me most is not falling and dying. Something less could easily be worse: serious injuries, massive hospital debt, chronic pain, permanent loss of mobility. It’s also a matter of comfort. As a builder/remodeler I often worked on roofs with just a safety rope around my waist. Back then I woke up all the time from falling dreams. Now that I do construction more safely, they are very rare. It’s nice to sleep well at night. Less working at odd angles = less back pain. Thank you OSHA.

BTW someone mentioned the unsafe angle of the orange ladder. It’s a support slide for 17 foot roof panels, raised with a rope winch via a pulley at the ridge. Humans use the 3 small ladders inside the frame.

The same risk calculation plays out for Covid-19. What scares me the most is a long hospitalization, then chronic lung damage and piles of debt. Even a mild case still means two weeks of quarantine, boredom and worry. Masks and social distancing are inconvenient, but much less so than what they prevent.

Many colleges that reopened are seeing outbreaks. Cornell and other local schools still plan to open on-site, so I am very worried about the next few months. It inspired me to start building a Covid risk estimator, using Microsoft Excel. It will help for personal decisions.

The process is similar to construction estimating: break things down into smaller pieces, calculate each of those, add them up. For construction, the components are scaffold setup, square feet of metal roofing, skilled labor. For Covid-19, it’s risky environments, and time spent in each. Add up the construction costs and you get a dollar amount. Add up life in 2020 and it’s an estimate of inhaled virus particles, and odds of getting sick.

Turtlesoft got its construction estimating data from our own projects. Covid-19 will be trickier. There’s a fair amount of useful data out there, but it does not translate so easily into virus per hour.

A basic problem for any estimating system is accuracy. Our construction unit costs were calibrated by matching them to actual costs for our remodeling projects. Then we refined them with feedback from users. For Covid-19, I’ll run it on a few case studies like the choir practice in Seattle, and tweak the values so it hits on the nose for those. County case counts and cell phone location data from the Social Distancing Scorecard will also help, especially from back when nobody wore masks.

This is not a rush project, but it ought to come together over the next couple weeks.

Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com

Goldenseal Pro & QT (Aug 10)

Our staff planned to spend the summer learning QT, but we soon discovered that it is very similar to other GUI frameworks we’ve already used. Much less to learn than expected. It’s time to jump right in.

To make the first steps easier, we cheated. Last week a subcontractor coded up the basic windows, using screen shots from the Cocoa version that we abandoned last year. He is a QT expert, so it only took a few days. The app runs on both Mac and Windows, and it looks pretty decent.

It’s nice to work with a framework that is based on modern C++. Apple’s Cocoa and Objective-C were just too quirky and weird. Microsoft’s MFC was far too old, and their new WinUI is still just vapor.

Right now we are checking the code, and deciding how to link in our existing accounting and estimating. The biggest challenge is figuring when & where to work on Goldenseal Pro. We definitely can’t subcontract the whole thing. Tried that once and it went nowhere. We know our own business software better than anyone, so it makes sense for our own programmers to do the work.

Problem is, Cornell and Ithaca College both decided to open in-person this Fall. Students are already starting to move in. Many are walking around without masks. Their parents are even worse. Some have come from states with many active infections. It makes life challenging for those of us over 60.

Even worse, the TurtleSoft office is in the densest part of town, sharing a four-story wooden stairway with nine other offices. Everyone shut down in March, but most are reopening gradually. People walk the halls and use the shared bathrooms without masks. The building dates from about 1890, so there is zero ventilation inside. I’m still trying to figure how to cope.

Personally, I maintain work/life balance by not having computers or Internet at home. That may need to change.

Meanwhile, I’m in a re-roofing groove. Just moved the scaffolding to finish the last bit on the east side of my house. The west side is more complicated because it has pipe flashings, rusted-out gutters, plus plans to add a couple skylights. The construction project will finish some time in September.

This early phase of software development requires plenty of head-scratching, design thought and planning. It probably won’t suffer much if it gets limited attention over the next month or so. As days get shorter and the weather grows worse, it will be easier to slither into a coding frenzy. Somewhere or another.

It’s still far too early to even guess at how long this software project will take. It’s the third attempt. Maybe we are getting better at it.

Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com

Covid-19 in New York #3 (July 26)

Upstate New York was doing great for a while. From mid-June until July 9, there were only 1 or 2 active cases of Covid-19 in our county. Most surrounding counties were equally low.

I think people started to think the problem was all over. They visited out of state, and had Independence Day parties without masks or social distancing. As a result, Covid-19 surged back. This past week, the number of active cases in the county has ranged from 32 to 39. It’s almost as many as during the peak in late March. Surrounding counties also have spikes. Oops.

At the peak in March, there were 18 people hospitalized with Covid-19. That dropped to zero, most days in May and June. This week saw a maximum of 4, but it quickly went back to zero. There is much more testing now, so March and April probably had hundreds of hidden cases.

Fortunately, still no deaths in Ithaca and environs. Some nearby counties have experienced 10 to 60 fatalities, especially where the disease hit nursing homes.

On a national scale, the State Rt tracker is starting to show interesting wiggly curves for most states. Growth rates go up, until there are enough cases to make people panic and become more careful. Then growth rates decline, until people breathe a sigh of relief and go back to their old ways. Rinse, repeat.

Globally, cases are exponential again. The number of new daily cases is increasing with the same curve as cumulative cases. That’s how exponentials work.

This disease is not fading away just because the weather is hot. It probably will get worse in the Fall. Many vaccines are under development, but getting a well-tested one that’s both safe and effective is still many months off. So the big question is, how to have some semblance of a normal life as long as Covid-19 is still around?

The IHME Covid Projections site makes predictions for most countries and all US states. It now estimates deaths and infections up until November 1, calculated with and without universal mask adoption. The difference is huge, especially in places that are currently hit hard. Overall I think masks are probably the cheapest and easiest way to reduce transmission, and still carry on economic activity that is as close to normal as possible. There are other options too, but none better than blocking those pesky snot droplets right at the source.

Personally, I wear an N95 mask a lot. Definitely indoors in places with other people. Also outdoors when within 6 feet of anyone who is well-masked. I give 20 feet to anyone bare-faced, or wearing a chin-warmer. I saved seven N95s from a box left over from lead paint removal, and labeled one for each day of the week. They all have an exhaust port, but I put tape over it as a courtesy to other people. After 4 months of use the straps are starting to get ragged, but they still work. Hopefully they’ll last until replacements are back in stock.

Many people around here wear masks, and/or give other people plenty of distance. Unfortunately, there are also plenty of Covidiots who don’t give a crap. I asked one non-masked jogger to give me 6 feet as he charged at me on the sidewalk, and he just ran up close and laughed ha ha right in my face. So now I listen for footsteps and scramble out of the way. It’s safer to walk in traffic, rather than close to idiots/narcissists/sociopaths/whatever.

It’s really too bad that the US recommended against face masks for so long. Too bad that leaders didn’t set an example, for so long. The Feds and most states still haven’t figured out effective messaging, to get people to wear them (and wear them properly). I would suggest pushing a conspiracy theory that Bill Gates has cameras everywhere, and masks are the only way to escape surveillance. Its software uses nose and mouth, so make sure both are covered well.

The only good news is that the US approach is going to be great for epidemiologists. There are 50 different states doing different things, and getting different results. Thousands of cities and counties with assorted rules, and varying compliance rates. It’s going to be incredibly useful data.

Meanwhile, I am still stripping old asphalt and adding new metal roofing on my house. The project just hit 25% completion. I’ve never assembled scaffolding before, nor worked with such long sheets. It’s quite a challenge to remove 3.5 tons of decades-old shingle without creating a mess.

So far I have made almost every possible mistake. I guess that is pretty much how I’ve always learned construction. Or programming. Or anything else in life.

Maybe that’s what the USA also needs to do: make every possible mistake. Then the next pandemic will be easier.

Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com