Covid-19 in New York #2 (May 1)

A couple weeks ago I reported on the impact of Covid-19 on a few mostly-rural counties in upstate NY. Here’s a quick update.

Tompkins County (home of Ithaca, Cornell and TurtleSoft) is still doing well. 132 confirmed cases so far (1oo recovered, 32 active). Still 0 local deaths. The social distancing score has dropped from B+ to C+. However, most people wear masks outdoors now, and masks are required inside stores. That isn’t visible in cell phone location data, but probably makes a big difference.

Tioga County (former home of TurtleSoft) has gotten much worse. In the past week they went from 0 to 14 deaths: mostly in a single nursing home. 98 confirmed cases in a population half that of Tompkins. Social distancing rated a D. I went down there last weekend and nobody wore masks, despite state regulations. Going into the Mini-Mart to pick up a gas receipt felt like a trip back to February.

Steuben County (2 to the west) had it rough in the previous report, and it’s even worse there now. 231 confirmed cases, and 37 deaths in a population similar to Tompkins. Still D for social distancing.

New York State has started small-scale antibody testing (which shows past infection, even if no symptoms). Results are very preliminary, but they suggest that 20% to 25% of folks in New York City may have been infected already. In NYC suburbs it ran 10%, and only 2.5% around here. “Herd immunity” probably requires at least 60% infected, so everyone still has a ways to go.

The theme locally (and elsewhere) is that even rural areas have places that are crowded. Infections can run rampant there. Nursing homes are the most likely target, but prisons, meat processing plants and factories are also hot spots.

It’s a systemic problem, since employees that work in all those places are often poorly paid, often with no benefits. They probably live in more crowded housing that is prime for transmission. And of course, the high cost of healthcare in the US means they are less likely to call in sick, or get treated.

I have no idea how any of this will correlate with conditions in the rest of the US. Too many unknowns.

Dennis Kolva
Programming Director
TurtleSoft.com

Author: Dennis Kolva

Programming Director for Turtle Creek Software. Design & planning of accounting and estimating software.